Milena Velba Black See

Epidemic Outbreak 2 3

As most of the questions that came are practical things I hope will be useful

1 What emerged in more than one part of this disease? Unlikely to arise in the same viral strain at the same time. This implies that there is a continuous family (ancestor descendant) between all viruses in the world. This means that there is also a continuous material from all infected persons or have been in contact with the virus. The reconstruction of the mode of transmission of all cases is impossible. However with the data known until now, it is likely that Mexico reached U.S., especially from California. It's easy to assume that was through a tourist or a migrant.

2 Will there be people immune?. is likely but is impossible to know at this time. Even knowing that, as in case of HIV, it can not be sick but if transmitter the virus to others. The best thing is to consider that we are all likely to get sick.

3 Does the flu can be cured with the use of magnets?. Definitely not. Nor with equine.

4 What I can kiss my family?. Sure. You can hug and kiss your partner, parents, children and may even have sex. (With strangers, I do not recommend). Raise hygiene and avoid where possible contact with more people, especially in crowds. This is to prevent dispersal.

5 Then the conglomerations are dangerous. Agglomerations, yes, but the crowding not because they are united sets of pebbles or other materials such as wood chips. They are only dangerous if you drop a very large head.

6 I use the face mask while driving. It is not necessary (unless you drive is a minibus).

7 And in the public transport? Is indispensable. The virus is potentially infectious for hours, unlike HIV which is extremely labile, it can be caught by contact with surfaces where it was posted hours earlier. For example, someone who is a carrier can sneeze and hours later another person touching the surface, put their hands in their mouths and become infected. far as possible do not use metro or bus. Walk, take the bike. If you can use taxi, do it with masks. If you live in Tacubaya flat and works in Pantitlán, masks, do not touch your face and wash arrive. Let's be clear, the influenza A/H1N1 virus was only transmitted in three ways: a) by direct contact with an infected person. b) contact with objects which have been deposited (called fomites are like vectors, but inorganic), that includes handrails, doorknobs, bottles of beer at the nightclub and internet cafe keyboard. c) viral particles in suspension by sneezing.

8 What if I see a zombie shot him in the street? No. Just do not kiss or the handshake.

9 How many types of influenza are there? There are many types of influenza virus in humans, several of them give the same signs and symptoms and is clinically indistinguishable. From 1977 until before the start of this mess seemingly two strains circulating, the H1N1 and H3N2. Yet they were the only ones. Data are from 1889, with a guy called H2N2, another en1900 known as H3N8, H1N1 in 1918 (the famous English flu that killed, depending on who you read, between 18 and 50 million people worldwide. So panic) , H2N2 in 1957, H3N2 in 1968 and again in 76/77 H1N1. The latter is of which I spoke yesterday and from which samples were stored in CDC's pregnant lady. Certainly that data initially passed me dr. Laura Vargas stop UNAM FM. The now is a variant of H1N1, it takes an A before.

10 Do I feel panic about the flu epidemic? If you still believe that magnets cure, yes. Otherwise no, because so far all evidence suggests that it is curable. Leave as little as possible from home, increase hygiene, that's all. It is important to give the proper dimension to this is a disease, is nothing supernatural. Fortunately it is not fatal in all cases, is curable, but it is very, very contagious and easy complication to more severe states. It is not a joke, take it seriously, but not crazy.

Still Panics?

alphaville_clone@hotmail.com

Hor Dourves Caterers Atlanta, Ga

For the basis of the comments, we continue with this exercise.

1 Is could do tests here Mexico? Yes and no. Yes, because the knowledge about the technology used is in common use among Mexican scientists from 20 years ago. In fact for this kind of evidence there are two laboratories with the highest requirements considered by the WHO. No. Because the reference strains have only retained the CDC and a case of a pregnant patient who died in 1978. Where the Canadians pulled out, so if you do not know at the moment. Perhaps an exchange of samples. However, by population size, economic resources and Mexico should have many more scientists, not only in this area, many others. Ten thousand scientific grade doctor is nothing. To see if this means those distributing the budget each year.

2 What do I say that the authorities acted quickly when it took two or three weeks to declare the alert? Well I say that it acted quickly. I ask, what if 6 months ago they had been told that the secretary of health and the government were to enact general epidemiological alert, ride a molecular identification tests days (capacity 10 times greater than the lab in Canada), logistics have to apply 1 million treatments, half a million vaccines and collect national information and coordinate with WHO, CDC, etc would have believed? The account is the St Jordi day here, not before. Imagine, one day a case of Oaxaca, one in DF then two in St. Louis. It's a puzzle and the data arrives at a trickle and change every day. Those who have done fieldwork of some kind in this country know how difficult to collect data and access to communities like the famous and immortal child. Actually I would focus my criticism of SEDESOL, Finance and Ministry of Labor. But that is for social scientists.

3 And then the cases of March? Context, in Mexico die each year about 40 thousand people from respiratory problems, more or less the same as in USA. If only it represents three times more because our population is one third of the United States. Many people die in our country of respiratory problems. Of these deaths are a large number of influenza. In March, seasonal influenza outbreaks detected, which were out of season. It's another strain. Were treated and sampled for molecular epidemiological studies and reference. When the first deaths and more outbreaks in April, these and other samples sent to CDC who puts them in line. For we ask that support Ontario and 36 hours gives the result. It is April 23. More context, one Chihuahua is about the size of Italy and the total Mexican territory is 4 times that of Spain. Yet the love I have for both countries and know a little health systems, I doubt they would have done faster. In the EU, only Germany, France and England, perhaps. North Norway or Sweden, but both have a population as the Iztapalapa and Ciudad Neza. "Canada? Chance. Africa. What is Africa? South Africa can not cope with HIV / AIDS that evolves over the years. Cuba is possible to react faster. The downside is that insurance also have sent samples to CDC. Do you realize that countries could have done as well or better?

4 But surely the Americans would have done faster. Maybe have the capacity, but in fact did not. With data on Thursday morning (just in New York 51 confirmed cases) is possible to assume that since there were cases for weeks and not detected. 5 Does

cumbia influenza is a good example of the creativity of the Mexican? NO

6 Why is that now there is less dead than before? Not having the ability to discriminate mounted cases with H1N1 molecular shape, it was decided to consider as such those who had the symptoms. With this approach has been more than 2000 cases. Are the suspects. Very ad hoc the term. As pears or apples are needed to make decisions. The 159 dead Famous last two days were all this together. In making the test only 7 were influenza virus. (There are now eight dead this morning)

7 What the hell is why the CDC and ask them for help? For several reasons, one formal lab is that it is our part as a reference in accordance with WHO. The reality is that the CDC is the largest center for the collection and investigation of samples from strains of pathogens in the world. Neither the Chinese nor the European Union. If YOU WANT to know about a virus that struck an African village in 1969, look no sample in Africa, safety is in Atlanta at the CDC.

8 Should we have a CDC? If clear, and also a NASA. And no joke, we should according to our capabilities far exceed our current infrastructure. However, the Indre, and Epidemiology are global, that is really young and only about epidemics size does matter. Today we will see how they work. The samples are now in charge.

9 And no, orgies are not recommended even with masks

10 Why there is a profile of those infected? Until they are confirmed with the molecular test is statistically irrelevant to know the data from a sample of 8. "5 men and 3 women? What does that tell us? No, wait

We

Does tomorrow May 6 will turn all to normal? Go figure. We hope so, do not you think? And yes, use the masks. We know that viruses are thousands of times more small. But I insist, is through saliva.

you still doubting?

alphaville_clone@hotmail.com

Do Ladies Wear Girdles

INTRODUCCION

INTRODUCTION
We have studied which is a stochastic process (a set of random variables indexed
an index t) and is a series (a realization of a stochastic process). We are interested in the stochastic process that generates a given economic variable, but only observe a time series. WHAT CAN BE DONE? At first nothing ....... with unless you are willing to take on two key assumptions:

• Stationarity. This assumption of identically distributed replaces the previous courses and is stronger.
• Ergodicity. This course replaces the independent and vague terms mean asymptotic uncorrelated. These

dos supuestos seremos capaces de describir ciertos aspectos del proceso estocastico habiendo observado solo una serie temporal. Recordad el ejemplo en clase cuando construimos una serie temporal eligiendo de forma aleatoria un alumno por columna y como eramos capaces de poder predecir ("decir algo") sobre la fila en la que estarian sentados los primeros estudiantes de la clase de al lado. Esto lo haciamos calculando la media de nuestra serie temporal, que es un estimador consistente gracias a los dos supuestos mencionados previamente.

DONDE ESTAMOS? Queremos predecir Z(t+1) dado el conjunto de informacion I(t). Si la funcion de perdida es cuadratica, la mejor prediccion es E[Z(t+1)/I(t)]. Esta esperanza condicional puede ser muy complicada and therefore we are forced to further restrict the world where we think we live. In this course, this world is going to be parametric and linear. Within this world are the ARMA models. In the next chapter will witness the birth of these models.

do not you remember the first practice of the course. If it costs you do not lose heart that the important thing is to let you know how to do prior to the next and that teachers are practices and practical classes bi-weekly.